Revisit: Share price woes of Keppel Corp

-
An update

Current share price: $6.10

Stellar earnings no longer stellar... but getting "staler"? (consolation, at least 18's results are better than 17.)
One of the big culprits of my 2015 portfolio massacre. I must have been quite stupid to buy it again at $6.82 last year. Now must wait long long for it to slowly recover...

Post below first published on 7/3/2016

 "Keppel Corporation announced earnings results for the year 2015. For the year, the company reported net profit fell 19.1% to SGD 1.52 billion, with its fourth-quarter results hit by a SGD 230 million provision for the default risks tied to a USD 4.9 billion rig construction contract with the financially stricken Sete Brasil. -SGX 2/3/16"

Biggest dip for share price in the year: $9.54 to $4.64 (a whooping -51% that sent the price below its NAV)

Current share price: $6.19 (-35% from Yr 2015 high)


Keppel's offshore and marine sector contributes 53% of its total revenue.
Here's a short analytical article by The FifthPerson.

The good things are they have set aside provision for the Sete default risk and still paying out dividends albeit lower than previous. Rumours have it that they may be selling some assets eg. stakes in M1. If it does, then we can expect this year's balance sheet to look a bit prettier.


So was the price of last year's $9.54 irrationally high? Or currrent $6 irrationally low?

Go figure.


-----------------------------------------
My little note:

Stockmarket is a weighing machine in the long term, but the human psychology makes market irrational in the short term. We should learn to control our emotions on investment - hold back if we find ourselves too optimistic, and let go if we find ourselves too fearful or pessimistic. Think through the facts and options then decide.

-----------------------------------------

Comments

  1. Createwealth888801/02/2019, 08:53

    Waited so looooong! Sembcorp Ind is worse! That one is looooooooooooooooooooong

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Rainbow01/02/2019, 11:12

      Sembcorp Ind - bought, sold, and forgone

      Delete
  2. Anonymous01/02/2019, 11:20

    I have colleagues who were still encouraging each other including me to buy at $9+. I was the only one did not buy.:)
    You mentioned Keppel sell M1? Don't think so, they are trying to take it private (buy).

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Rainbow02/02/2019, 16:05

      The selling M1 news was in 2015/16 time.

      Delete
  3. Anonymous01/02/2019, 11:21

    Even after annoucing dividend, it continues to drop. So $5 is likely...

    ReplyDelete

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

Reflections for year 2024

-
Image
2024 has been a relatively peaceful year. So peaceful that I have read countless novels and other books, met my sports buddies almost every weekend and picked up horticulture. Physical and mental health As we say, health is wealth. I have stuck fairly consistently with my exercise regime and tried to include more fruits and vegetables in my meals (although I eat out more and cook less these days). My weight, BP and cholesterol levels are doing ok. For those 40 years and above, remember to get your  subsidized health screenings from the government . Working less and meeting up with friends more contributed to an improved mental health. I see that the government has stepped up on initiatives in the community but work place initiatives from employers still seemed lackluster, especially for those who can't WFH and need to commit 44 hours or more a week at frontline work. I have also started a Gratitude journey to celebrate all my little life milestones. Financials Investment wise ...
Read more

The gold rush again

-
Image
I recently saw this video on CNA Money Mind channel https://www.channelnewsasia.com/watch/money-mind-2024-2025/going-gold-4299741 and thought I would summarize some learning points for those interested in gold investment. Photo by Zlaťáky.cz on Unsplash Gold is viewed as a safe haven asset in time of uncertainty, crisis or geopolitical risks. Demand for gold is influenced by Central bank purchases. The purchase premium of gold decreases in % with relationship to the gold bar's weight. Eg, a heavier gold bar has lower purchase premium over a lighter one. There's no GST for investment grade gold bars. Gold-backed ETF is backed by physical gold. Lower yield environment will benefit gold prices as the opportunity cost of holding gold lowers. Source: https://www.statista.com/statistics/673513/monthly-prices-for-gold-worldwide/ As seen from the chart, the last mega price spike was in year 2019 to 2020. This year we saw another mega spike. In order to circumvent any US withholding t...
Read more

Shit happens and I lost my low-hanging fruits

-
My SAYE account has just hit its 25th month anniversary which is also the "month of maturity". Anticipating to get the 3.5% bonus interest for all these months of saving, I was shocked to see only $17+ cash gift credited as opposed to a few hundred dollars. I was about to send a message to query the bank what caused this interest plummet versus what I got in the 13th month when I came across a debit transaction in my account history (GASP!). To my oblivion and horror, I have accidentally selected my SAYE account to transfer $50 to a joint account to foot some bill in one of the months last year. Here's the terms and conditions for those who are not familiar with the SAYE account of POSB. "To receive the additional 3.5% p.a. Cash Gift Interest, ensure that you do not make any withdrawal from your POSB SAYE account." "If a withdrawal is made in the month, this will result in the previously accumulated additional 3.5% p.a. interest to be forfeited." Damn....
Read more

Reflections for year 2023

-
Image
2023 is a year which I have relented to the inevitable dealing with adversities. Sending my mother in and out of hospital had become a norm. Being a healthcare professional, I thought I could handle it single-handedly well enough, not until the point when my mother ceased to be fit enough to attend dementia day care that I came to the conclusion that I needed a helper. However, things took a steep downhill turn before I could hired one (counted myself lucky that I did not commit to a hire). My mother passed away in June, it was a relief for me and probably a relief for her as well. However, life is not meant to be smooth-riding. My mother did not leave behind a will, thus I have to apply for the Letters of Administration with the Court and as my sibling has mental disability, this led to some complexities which have yet to be resolved. Instead of hiring a lawyer, I decided to apply the LOA and MCA orders by myself through the Service Bureau. I am paying my time and convenience for it ...
Read more

Be anti-fragile

-
Image
Life's not easy, life goes on. Rather than gripe (we know the saying "人生不如意事十之八九"), it is important for us to focus on risk management in our daily lives and how to become anti-fragile. Buying insurance, setting stop-losses, cut losses and bad connections out of our lives, look before stepping and don't seek cheap thrills. That's risk management at its very least. Taleb's concept of anti-fragile is one level above risk management and robustness.  It is about how chaos can make one better and stronger. Don't fear volatility, uncertainty and disruptions. Instead view them as opportunities.  Quoting the video, we should learn to  "transforms fear into prudence, pain into information, mistakes into initiation and desires into undertaking" . Toughen your mindset If you have tough desire, then be prepared for a tough process working towards it. Another point highlighted in the video for our mind training is - we can imagine worse case scenario, imagine...
Read more

Disclaimer:

The contents of this blog are author's personal opinions and do not constitute advice to hold, buy or sell any securities, commodities or assets mentioned. I do not guarantee the accuracy and reliability of any information provided, and shall not be liable for any losses incurred from reading my posts or using the materials herein. This blog may contain affiliate links to external sites.