Circle of competence
"I began to understand how multiple factors drive profits at that company. Price movements showed me that the value of Exxon Mobile didn't have a simple relationship to the price of oil. It also responded to interest rates, the value of the US dollar, and especially economic expectations. I also learned more about the supply, demand, and cartel dynamics affecting the price of oil. I realized my knowledge of the oil business and the oil markets was way too shallow to make a call about oil company stock. I'd underestimated the long-term impact of factors driving oil prices down." Above is an excerpt from a book I have read some time ago (can't recall, but I think is this one). When one decides to invest a substantial portion of his money into an asset or company, it should not be based on hope or assumption, it should be based on understanding. One needs to understand the risks involved, what influence the company's earnings and the...